Over the past few weeks, Myanmar junta boss Min Aung Hlaing has been busy visiting regional military commands and orchestrating heavy bombing raids on areas in ethnic states where his regime has lost control—all in a frantic effort to salvage his waning popularity within the military and among sympathizers of the armed forces.
Prior to his recent outings, Min Aung Hlaing remained comfortably holed up in Naypyitaw, far from the front lines, even as the military he leads suffered a series of unprecedented defeats during anti-regime Operation 1027, which began late last year.
Criticism of him intensified after the North Eastern Command based in Lashio, the capital of northern Shan State, fell in early August. Even the staunchest supporters of the military publicly slammed Min Aung Hlaing on social media, calling on him to step down.
Former military officers questioned Min Aung Hlaing’s competence, drawing a distinction between his weak leadership and the way former generals led their troops on battlefields.
Amid the mounting criticism of Min Aung Hlaing, social media was abuzz in the second week of August with reports of a palace coup in Naypyitaw. Whereas the regime previously did not bother to respond to rumors of countercoups, the junta’s information team did respond this time, dismissing the reports as mere fake news.
Then Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi flew to Naypyitaw to signal Beijing’s support for Min Aung Hlaing, pledging assistance for the junta’s plans to conduct a census and hold an election. Junta media deliberately misquoted Wang as saying China condemned the offensives by the Brotherhood Alliance, the grouping of three ethnic armies that launched Operation 1027. The alliance comprises the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA).
Within their cantonments, officers and rank-and-file troops were told the regime had reached an understanding with China that it would force the ethnic rebels to retreat, and that lost territory as far as Laukkai near the Chinese border would be retaken soon.
One week after Wang’s visit, Min Aung Hlaing visited the military’s Southern Command in Bago, Central Command in Mandalay, Hmawbi Air Base in Yangon, Eastern Command in Shan State’s Taunggyi, and the Loikaw Regional Operations Command (ROC) in the Karenni State capital. During his meetings with military personnel on those trips, he vowed to respond to the ethnic rebels as quickly as possible.
Swe Taw, a former soldier who defected from the Myanmar military after the 2021 coup, said Min Aung Hlaing is naturally risk-averse, but after support for him within the military hit rock bottom following the loss of the North Eastern Command, he had no choice but to leave the relative safety of the capital and visit frontline commands such as those in Loikaw and Hsihseng in southern Shan State.
The Karenni Nationalities Defense Force has a strong presence in Loikaw and still controls its suburbs after being forced out of the town. Hsihseng was also briefly seized by the Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLA) before the regime retook it. The PNLA is however still operating in the area.
Min Aung Hlaing has barely visited the front lines at all since the coup.
His trips to Loikaw and Hsihseng were disorganized, as he dared not announce them in advance. He visited both locations in a single day and immediately returned after meeting military personnel and junta employees. He and his generals did not take their wives along on those trips, though the wives accompanied them on trips to Yangon and Mandalay, Swe Taw said.
The KNDF said it shelled two locations—the Loikaw ROC and the Loikaw State Hall—during Min Aung Hlaing’s visit after being tipped off that he was scheduled to visit both places.
In late August, the Ruili Town Security Committee in China’s Yunnan province, which borders Shan State, issued a warning to the TNLA, asking the armed group, which has gained the upper hand over the regime militarily in northern Shan, to “immediately stop fighting or face consequences”.
Subsequently, the regime—which has lost every battle it has fought against the Brotherhood Alliance since late October last year—declared the alliance’s three members to be terrorist organizations and launched Operation Yan Naing Min, vowing to retake the territory it has lost.
The regime has since ramped up its bombing raids on towns controlled by anti-regime groups in northern Shan, Rakhine, Chin and Karenni states and Mandalay and Magwe regions, killing over 80 people including pregnant women, children, students, teachers and prisoners of war (junta soldiers) in a week.
Despite the increased air raids, the junta’s naval base in Rakhine State’s Thandwe Township fell to the AA on Sept. 5. Meanwhile, the regime is struggling to fend off the TNLA’s attacks on Taung Kan Village in Shan State’s Nawnghkio Township, which houses the junta’s main artillery battalions in the area and is located close to Pyin Oo Lwin, the seat of the junta’s military academies.
TNLA spokesman Lway Yay Oo said the group was not intimidated by Min Aung Hlaing’s threats. The junta boss previously declared martial law in those towns as part of his vow to retake them, but to no avail, she said.
Other ethnic armed groups share this view. Min Aung Hlaing’s threats are purely for internal consumption within the military as he tries to rebuild support in the ranks, they say.
Meanwhile, military supporters have called on Min Aung Hlaing to be more aggressive in trying to retake the lost territories, leading observers to believe that the regime will continue its air campaign.
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